British News Agency

In the analysis, it was stated that the monetary policy meetings of the central banks of Japan, the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom will be closely monitored throughout the week, while growth, inflation and consumer confidence data from the United States and Europe will also guide the markets. It was emphasized that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the volatile course of oil prices continue to be decisive for global risk appetite, and therefore market volatility may remain high throughout the week.

According to the analysis, on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and the Conference Board consumer confidence index in the United States will be followed. It was stated that although consumer confidence rose from 91.0 to 91.8 in March, it still pointed to a pessimistic trend on the consumer side and served as a leading indicator for spending.

On Wednesday, the final April consumer confidence index in the Eurozone, Germany’s preliminary CPI data and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will come to the fore. According to preliminary data, Eurozone consumer confidence fell from minus 16.4 to minus 20.6 in April, and no change is expected in the final data. It was reported that CPI in Germany increased by 1.1 percent monthly and 2.7 percent annually in March due to the rise in energy prices. It was recalled that the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged in the 3.50–3.75 percent range and gave the message that a rate cut was not on the agenda despite inflation remaining above target. It was stated that the Fed maintained its PCE inflation forecast at 2.0 percent and its unemployment forecast at 4.2 percent, while raising its growth expectation from 1.8 percent to 2.0 percent and its funding rate forecast from 3.0 percent to 3.1 percent.

On Thursday, it was noted that the data flow will intensify. Germany’s and the Eurozone’s first-quarter 2026 GDP data, Eurozone preliminary CPI figures, the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as growth and PCE inflation data in the United States will be announced. It was stated that the German economy grew by 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 0.4 percent annualized in the final quarter of last year, while the Eurozone economy recorded growth of 0.2 percent quarterly and 1.2 percent annualized. In the Eurozone, CPI increased by 1.3 percent monthly and 2.6 percent annually in March, while core CPI rose by 0.8 percent monthly and 2.3 percent annually.

It was stated that the European Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at its March meeting, with the overnight deposit rate at 2.00 percent, the main refinancing rate at 2.15 percent and the marginal lending rate at 2.40 percent. The bank drew attention to the fact that developments in the Middle East increased uncertainty over the economic outlook and emphasized that energy prices could put upward pressure on inflation in the short term. It was stated that the ECB raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 1.9 percent to 2.6 percent and lowered its growth forecast from 1.2 percent to 0.9 percent.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75 percent at its March meeting and stated that it was closely monitoring the upside risks to inflation caused by energy price increases stemming from the Middle East. It was noted that the bank gave the message that it was ready to take additional steps if necessary in line with the 2.0 percent inflation target.

In the analysis, it was stated that the preliminary growth data for the first quarter to be announced in the United States on Thursday and the PCE inflation indicators for March are of critical importance for global markets. It was recalled that the US economy grew by 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of last year, slightly below market expectations. It was stated that the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, increased by 0.4 percent monthly and 2.8 percent annually in February, while the core PCE Price Index rose by 0.4 percent monthly and 3.0 percent annually, in line with expectations.

In the analysis, it was stated that following the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye meeting, the domestic data flow will remain relatively calm, but labor force statistics, the economic confidence index, foreign trade and tourism data, and the Services Producer Price Index will stand out. It was emphasized that volatility in domestic markets may remain high due to developments in global markets and geopolitical risks.

It was reported that labor force statistics for March and the economic confidence index for April will be followed on Wednesday. According to Turkish Statistical Institute data, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.3 points compared to the previous month to 8.5 percent, while the unemployment rate among the young population rose by 1.4 points to 15.8 percent. The underutilized labor rate increased by 0.1 points to 29.9 percent.

It was noted that the economic confidence index, which was at 100.7 in February, fell by 2.8 percent to 97.9 in March. In March, among sub-items, the consumer confidence index decreased by 0.8 percent, the real sector confidence index by 3.9 percent, the services sector confidence index by 0.5 percent, the retail trade sector confidence index by 2.0 percent and the construction sector confidence index by 3.9 percent. In April, the consumer confidence index increased by 0.5 percent, the real sector confidence index decreased by 1.4 percent, the services sector confidence index decreased by 3.1 percent, the retail trade sector confidence index decreased by 1.8 percent, while the construction sector confidence index increased by 3.6 percent.

On Thursday, final foreign trade data for March, tourism statistics and the Services Producer Price Index will be announced. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Trade, exports decreased by 6.4 percent annually to 21.92 billion dollars in March, while imports increased by 8.4 percent to 33.18 billion dollars, and the foreign trade deficit rose by 57 percent to 11.26 billion dollars. In the January-March period, the foreign trade deficit reached 28.68 billion dollars with an annual increase of 28 percent.

According to tourism data, the number of foreigners visiting Türkiye in February decreased by 2.1 percent annually to 2.1 million people, while in January it increased by 3.5 percent to 2.2 million people. In the January-February period, the total number of visitors reached 4.37 million people with an increase of 0.7 percent.

The Services Producer Price Index increased by 2.10 percent monthly and 33.58 percent annually in February, while the increase according to twelve-month averages was 35.77 percent.

In the analysis, it was stated that the BIST100 Index closed last week down 1.23 percent at 14,409 points. The index followed a volatile course in the range of 13,212–14,616 points throughout the week. In the technical outlook, it was reported that the 14,610 level will be monitored as the rising trend resistance in upward movements. In downward movements, the 14,185 level, which is in the position of horizontal support, stands out in the first stage. If this level is broken, 13,930 may be monitored as the next support, while if selling pressure continues, the 12,930 level, which is the upper band support of the medium-term rising channel, may come to the agenda.